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斯托克代尔悖论

《基业常青》及《从优秀到卓越》的作者吉姆·柯林斯认为,转型成功企业的管理队伍都显示出极大的心理承受能力。一方面,他们平静地接受了残酷的现实;另一方面,他们对自己坚信不移,相信无论道路如何险阻,前途一定是光明的。我们把这种耐力称之为“斯托克代尔悖论”。


他们能够如此,很大程度上是因为他们兼顾斯托克代尔悖论的两个方面,不让任何一方占上风。如果你可以采取这个双重系统,你就可以极大地增加作出正确决策的机会,并最终找到一个简单而又深刻的道理,作出真正了不起的抉择。一旦掌握了这个简单而统一的理念,你就离不断转变取得突破性进展不远了。
此外,在企业早期积累阶段,牢记斯托克代尔悖论同样重要:“我们并未打算在圣诞节之前就实现突破,但是如果我们能够持续不断地朝正确的方向推,我们最终会实现突破的。”勇敢地面对残酷的现实可以帮助你发现飞轮转动所需采取的步骤,这些步骤是显而易见的,虽然不容易做到。对最终的结果充满信心,能帮助你度过数月乃至若干年的积累阶段。
在遭遇困境之后,还能剥离大环境以保持理性且正确的思考问题的方式,对于个人或公司来说都是一件很有意义的事情。总之,当你诚实而努力,想要确定所面临的现实情况,那样的话,在十字路口总能找到前进的方向。
经典小档案:
斯托克代尔悖论:坚持你一定会成功的信念,同时,要面对现实中最残忍的事实,不论有多大的困难,不论它们是什么。
要点:对前途充满信心,但又直面残酷的现实。

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